Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Well, Obama was here yesterday...

...and I'm still not going to vote for him. I personally resent any political figure that tells me how he/she is going to "fix" the economy. The economy cannot be "fixed". In a free-market system, it regulates itself. It will go through up and down periods. It always has. These cannot be avoided. And, while we're on the subject, let's talk about oil. It's the lifeblood of the modern world economy. We certainly can't function without it. However, a lot of today's political figures want to punish the "evil" oil companies for putting the screws to average people by arbitrarily and artificially inflating the price of oil, and thus, the price of gasoline. I hear people talking about taking windfall profits (whatever the hell those are) away from oil companies and repealing their tax breaks because they're screwing the American people. There are some points that people need to understand about oil and political reality before they base their decisions on this particular segment of the economy.

1. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 41% of oil company stock is owned by retirement funds of various individuals. So, if you screw the oil companies out of their profits, in reality, you're screwing retirees and other working people who have invested in them to make their retirement more comfortable. There aren't four or five people out there, pushing the button to raise the price and getting rich because of it. Oil companies, like most companies, are a little more complex than that. Also, if your increase their taxes, or decrease their profits, they're just going to pass that on to the consumer, driving the price of gas up even further.

2. We have a gasoline supply problem in this country and in the world that is largely due to a lack of sufficient refining capacity. As you should have learned in ECO 201 (even if it was taught by an Asian guy with a Spanish name), if supply does not keep up with demand, the price will inevitably rise, or there will be a severe shortage. We haven't come up against a severe shortage, but the price has risen, in obedience to the law of supply and demand. What we should do, is to increase our refining capacity. However, that's going to be difficult for two reasons. One, no one wants one of these in their back yard. Two, the environmental lobby in this country has secured the passage of laws that that impose such restrictive polices on new refineries that there would be little or no profit in building them. The environmental lobby is also made up of those geniuses who are keeping us from drilling for more oil in 9,000 acres of the 19,000,000-acre Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (seen only by the 3 or 4 caribou that inhabit it), or off the the east and west coasts of America, or in North Dakota, or in several other places that just might be able to ease the oil supply shortage in this country.

3. Inflation happens. Regularly. It just hadn't happened in a big way to gasoline in a very long time. But all prices are subject to inflation. It's just a matter of time. For example, in 1964 (I use that year because it's the year Ford introduced the Mustang, the coolest car ever), the price of a new Ford Mustang was, in round numbers, about $2,500.00. Today, the price of a new Ford Mustang averages about $26,000.00. That means that a the price of that particular consumer item has multiplied by 10.4 times in 44 years. The price of a a gallon of regular gasoline in 1964 was about 30-35 cents. If you multiply 35 cents by 10.4, you get $3.64, which is pretty close to where the price of gas is today.

4. The oil companies aren't making that much off of a gallon gas. Matter of fact, it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7 cents per gallon. So, the record profits everyone moans about should logically be seen as a product of greatly increased demand. A 7-cent profit on a $3.50 gallon of gas is a 2% profit margin. I don't begrudge any business a 2% profit. However, those fine servants of yours in government are taking (at least in North Carolina) a total of 48.55 cents in taxes on each gallon. That means the government is getting a profit of 13.9% on a gallon of gas. So, the question becomes, who's really screwing you?

As Forrest Gump once said, "That's all I have to say, about that."

On to today's Chick Movie:

#3--Kate and Leopold (2001)
This movie ranks high because any movie with time travel in it is assumed to be better than most other movies. The story goes this way:

In 1876, Leopold Alexis Elijah Walker Gareth Thomas Mountbatten, Duke of Albany and inventor of the elevator, is a stifled man and dreamer, like his contemporaries Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse. Strict Uncle Millard has no patience for Leopold's delusions of grandeur and disrespect for the monarchy, chastising him and telling him he must marry a rich American, as the Mountbatten family finances are depleted. His uncle has told him that on his "thirtieth birthday he had become a blemish to the family name". In the meantime, the puzzled Duke finds Stuart Besser, an amateur physicist (and descendant of Leopold, according to deleted scenes) perusing through his schematic diagrams and taking photographs of them. He had seen him only earlier while listening to Roebling's speech about the Brooklyn Bridge. Leopold follows Stuart and tries to save him from what he thinks is a suicide, falling after him into the portal that brought the man there in the first place. Leopold awakens in 21st century New York. (Consequently, all elevators malfunction.) He is at first confused and, thinking that he has been kidnapped, he immediately takes a strident and defensive stance against Stuart. Stuart describes to him that he has created formulae to forecast portals in the temporal universe and that Leopold must stay inside his apartment until the portal opens again a week later; he is "held in the time-after". As Stuart takes his dog out, he is injured by falling into the elevator shaft, and is eventually institutionalized for speaking about his scientific discovery. Leopold is intrigued by the cynical and ambitious Kate McKay, Stuart's ex-girlfriend, who comes to the apartment for her Palm Pilot pointer. He observes that she is a "career woman" and states that he once dated a librarian from Sussex. Kate rudely dismisses him and sends him out into the city, demanding that he take Stuart's dog for a walk. Leopold is overwhelmed to see that Roebling's bridge is still standing. Back at the apartment, he befriends Charlie, Kate's brother and an actor between gigs, who believes him to be an actor as well, steadfast to his character. The pressured Kate, who has been diligently working toward a promotion, enlists Leopold into a commercial for her job. He then ruins her dinner date with her boss. However, Leopold's eloquent apology brings them together. The two become romantically involved, as they dine and tour New York. Leopold cannot see how she would have him endorse a flawed item without qualms, and declares that "when someone is involved in something entirely without merit, one withdraws". Similar to his uncle, Kate says that sometimes one has to do things they don't want to. He chides her about integrity. She retorts, "I don't have time for pious speeches from two hundred year old men who have not worked a day in their life". When Kate receives the desired promotion, she must choose between the current time and job or the 19th century with Leopold, as Stuart, who has escaped from the mental hospital with some help, and Charlie arrive in time to the banquet to show Kate pictures of her in 1876. Stuart says that he had thought he disrupted the spacetime continuum, but actually "the whole thing is a beautiful 4-D pretzel of kismetic inevitability".

Meg Ryan's always pretty hot and Hugh Jackman's funny as the disoriented 1870's guy. Pretty good all the way around.

Semi-Memorable Quote (for a guy):

Leopold: Are you suggesting madam that there exists a law compelling a gentleman to lay hold of canine bowel movements?

Police Officer: I'm suggesting that you pick the poop up.

Today's Musical Selection: Tesla--Signs

1 Comments:

Blogger Mark said...

Interesting points, all valid. I will look at a couple of the same points from a different set of lenses (possible conspiracy lenses, i don't know). You can't "fix" the economy but what you say in public (assuming you want to win an election in our archaic 2 party system) better be Lowest Common Denominator approved. Replace "fix" with "reduce the imbalance in US import/exports while reducing the trade deficit and increasing the GDP" and you will get blank stares from 76% of the electorate. McCain too will be gearing up to "fix" the economy if he every has an opponent to directly engage on the so-called issues of this election.

1)Good point, but at what point do you end up funding your own retirement through an oil company middle man. At what point does the increased worth of you retirement fund become nullified by the added fuel and fuel based cost increases you'll be spending it on to keep that stock moving upward. Not to say reality is anywhere near that point but just an idea. The stock market doesn't react kindly to maintained profits, it wants increased profits.

2) The refinery supply problem is not a new one, If the oil companies wanted to invest some of those profits into increasing or modernizing refinery capability they could, with or without making a profit since they are already making record profits. It serves them no purpose to without government intervention. Without the bottleneck, supply stabilizes, profits stabilize, stock prices stabilize...all bad things for a market that feeds on growth. Strict supply/demand doesn't quite apply i think partly because we are not a true free market (not that this is a bad thing since society would collapse if we were) and second because companies are designed to increase profits. If hybrids fell from the sky tomorrow reducing world demand for oil would gas prices fall? Maybe for a few weeks until the novelty wore off then I suggest they would rise, consumers would need less gas and therefore fall victim to buying it at a higher price recouping lost oil revenue. Example of free market yes, supply vs. demand, no.

April 30, 2008 5:25 PM  

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